The Black SwanThis book is a philosophical essay on the importance of chance. Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb defends the thesis that the most unlikely events always end up happening. This type of event is called Black Swan. A Black Swan is a random, highly unlikely event that is difficult to predict and impacts our lives. More specifically, according to the author, it satisfies the following three characteristics: “This is an aberration, its impact is extremely strong and our human nature pushes us to invent ex post explanations of its occurrence, making it explainable and predictable” L The author talks about blindness in the face of chance, and especially to events that particularly differ from our expectations. Three parts make up Taleb's reasoning: - An analysis of how to collect historical and current events and the distortions inherent in this perception. A study of errors understanding the future and limits of science- the question of extreme events and our reference to the Gaussian curve/bell curve refers to the story that before the discovery of Australia was thought to be all swans, without exception, were white. It is subtitled: The impact of the highly improbable. It is about this above all, but also about our blindness towards "black swans". ", these "aberrations" defined as unexpected events because they are very unlikely (which have never occurred in the past), and have significant impacts that we explain and try to explain. According to the author, "Our world is dominated by extremes, the the unknown and the very improbable (improbable according to our current knowledge)". Too often we tend to confuse the improbable and the impossible, we are locked into thought patterns that d...... middle of paper ... ...and forecasters and economists (who are always absolutely wrong) consider them to be dishonest and incompetent. This is an essay that bears his name and which fulfills its role perfectly a personal reflection and opens the debate. It does not claim to provide demonstrations and can allow itself to be approximate because it is not a scientific treatise or a study. The metaphorical examples are widely used. Even if some themes are already known by people and readers , the unorthodox way of discussing it is original and thought-provoking. This essay also has the merit of standing out for a sense of humor, sometimes feisty, with a playful tone that does not detract from its quality, highlighting and confirming what we know: it is not necessary to be boring to talk about serious things.